Vaccine Efficacy in Massachusetts

Oh, the frustration!
Massachussetts data does *NOT* break down individuals by vaccine booster status. So, the reporting is “fully vaccinated” (meaning 2 does *or more*) and “not fully vaccinated”.

It is known that the 2 does series does not really protect all that well against Omicron. So, from the reporting of “breakthrough cases” — we actually can’t really tell how well the *actual* “fully vaccinated” fare against covid.

We know that 79% of MA residents have received at least the 2 shot series. We know that 56% of *those* (meaning about 44% of the entire population) have received at least 1 booster.

So, here’s the problem: I can calculate that in MA, based on the reported numbers of “breakthrough cases’, the “at least 2 does” is about 32% effective at preventing COVID-19 infections*. What I *can’t* tell is that, of those that got infected, how many of them were boosted vs how many not? We don’t know.

* Caveat: it’s possible that the vaccine isn’t preventing COVID, but there is in fact a common cause that is correlated to both vaccination and uninfection — like people actively trying to avoid COVID by not going out, etc. That is surely some part of the apparent success of vaccination. I doubt that it’s most of it.

Published
Categorized as COVID

By Dewey Sasser

Dewey likes math. He likes it enough that he graduated from MIT with a degree in Aerospace Engineering (yes, literally rocket science). As you might imagine, it’s a math heavy field. (He now works in cloud computing.) Dewey applies mathematical thinking to pretty much everything, to the probable consternation as well as occasional appreciation of his friends and family. Should you walk or run in the rain to minimize how wet you get? Yup, he’s done the math. (Spoiler: it depends on how hard the rain is falling.)

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