An article on the future of Covid

Here is an excellent article on the future of SARS-CoV-2.

TL;DR: we can expect it to get more contagious, and we don’t really know where the wall will be on that, but there is one.

We can expect it to continue to evade prior immunity (which is a different thing), and the wall on that is much further away.

We don’t know whether it will get more or less severe.

Notably absent from the article is any prediction of long term effects. For example, polio has only about 1/10th the immediate death rate of COVID, but about 30% of recovered people get some level of paralysis 15-30 years later. (Disclaimer: we have no reason to believe it acts like polio, but it already doesn’t act like many other coronaviruses, which do not really have long term effects.)

Published
Categorized as COVID

By Dewey Sasser

Dewey likes math. He likes it enough that he graduated from MIT with a degree in Aerospace Engineering (yes, literally rocket science). As you might imagine, it’s a math heavy field. (He now works in cloud computing.) Dewey applies mathematical thinking to pretty much everything, to the probable consternation as well as occasional appreciation of his friends and family. Should you walk or run in the rain to minimize how wet you get? Yup, he’s done the math. (Spoiler: it depends on how hard the rain is falling.)

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