TL;DR: In Massachusetts, COVID has been rising and the current stall might not be real. Stay away from big crowds (> about 30 people).
Surprising no one, the end of countermeasures allowed COVID to start rising again (actually, it started rising a bit before the end, which makes ending them even less sensible).
I need to make a long post about my methodology and the way I look at all of this. This is not that post. For now, suffice it to say that I have a spreadsheet where I calculate the risk of becoming infected based on the current numbers (infection rates for both unvaccinated and vaccinated and vaccination rates), and then I apply it to a risk budget based on being able to tolerate a 1 in 10 chance that I will get COVID in a year. (This is *my* risk tolerance. Your risk tolerance might be different, particularly if you are older or have higher risk factors for severe impact.)
Many, many caveats apply, but I find it a good guide, and my results are generally compatible with other sites out there doing similar things.
Here’s the current summary: COVID has been on the rise for weeks. It *looks* like that rise sort of stalled over the last week, *BUT* cases are typically undercounted on holiday weekends, and last weekend was a big holiday in MA. So, that stall is quite probably an illusion and things will continue to rise.
Right now, my spreadsheet says that I can have “close contact” (within 6′ of someone for > 15 minutes in 24 hours) with 29 people in a day, rising to 41 people if I know that they’re vaccinated.
Big caveat: a good bet is still a bet. I’m playing the odds, but that’s not a guarantee.
